A multi-scale integrated assessment model to support urban sustainability

Abstract Tools purposed towards supporting the transition to more sustainable urban futures typically focus on specific phenomena at local level. Whilst such approaches remain valuable, there is a need complement this micro approach with broader integrated methods which deal interaction between different components as well their relation processes and policies enacted higher scales. Through adaptation of World3 global model Meadows et al. (The limits growth, Universe Books, New York, 1972; Limits growth: 30-year update. Earthscan, London 2005), integrating both an system layer, national data layer inputting new data, we develop proof-of-concept multi-scale assessment model. This used explore relationship sustainability relative higher-scale contexts. By emphasising feedback, cascading effects, unintended consequences, modelling framework allows for deeper consideration coupling mechanisms subsystems within across Following description our model, take (2005)’s ‘Scenario 3’ starting point generate several scenarios exploring potential intervention taken level individual tackle food security localised pollution. Our results demonstrate that evolution sensitively dependent wider events, while concerted may mitigate some future largely mercy system. We argue exercise suggest important role models informing context policy measures hierarchical In extended discussion section, outline barriers routes building work beyond relating boundaries, politicisation, confidence in outputs.